Explaining your world, today:
When an election is called in Canada, at the federal or provincial level, a writ is issued.
A what?!
The writ is a written order (what an imaginative term, eh?) instructing election officers to hold an election (obviously). When the writ is drawn up and signed, we call it dropping the writ. It’s less of a mic drop (it’s pretty formal and undramatic, after all) and more like dropping the gloves in hockey: the fight is officially on.
BC and New Brunswick have officially dropped the writ – they’re officially fighting for votes – and Saskatchewan will join the party very soon.
All three provinces are expecting relatively close elections, even though Saskatchewan’s will almost certainly return the status quo: a Scott Moe-led Saskatchewan Party majority.
New Brunswick is a toss-up. It’s a very close two-way race between the incumbent Blaine Higgs-led Progressive Conservatives and the provincial Liberal Party, but with one very important caveat. The Green Party is polling very well at 15% and could either hold the balance of power in the legislature or split the vote in key ridings, allowing the PCs to snag a majority (even if they lose the popular vote) thanks to our first-past-the-post electoral system.
Bottom line? New Brunswick will be interesting…but probably not as interesting as BC.
Yes, the Greens will play a role in this election as well, but their vote – unlike New Brunswick – is fairly efficient (read: concentrated). That means the Greens will likely win 1-2 seats, but won’t split the left-of-centre vote in key swing ridings. And in the key swing ridings? It’s a two-way dog fight between the incumbent David Eby-led provincial NDP and the upstart BC Conservative Party led by John Rustad. In fact, this election might be one of BC’s closest on record.
In all three elections, economic issues are front and centre – namely cost-of-living issues, like housing – as well as crime/drug policy and health care. The environment is on the radar too, especially in BC and New Brunswick, but it’s not a top issue. At least in the way you might think.
Polls tell us that while the environment is a top-ten issue for urban voters, it likely won’t be the policy that determines their final voting intention. But in rural Saskatchewan and BC, the opposite is true. A backlash against environmental policies will drive some voters to cast their ballots for candidates that will fight environmental regulations and land conservation.
Maybe you want to know why this is the case. Good! We cover this in detail in Chapter Two, across all courses. So, hold your judgement, no matter where you stand, until you know the context behind these motivating factors.
And speaking of context, that’s also the subject of tomorrow’s post!