Quebec’s Election
Quebec’s upcoming election, while not a snap election like BC, is equally consequential. The Parti Québécois is campaigning on Quebec sovereignty and has said it would pursue a referendum, even if it formed a minority government. The party has also said it would wait until Donald Trump is no longer president before holding one. That means the future of Canada is very much on the ballot in Quebec.
Why is it happening?
The Coalition Avenir Québec’s four-year term was nearing its constitutional limit, so an election had to be held by this fall. With the unpopular former leader François Legault having resigned, the CAQ are now led by Premier Christine Fréchette, who hopes to focus the election on US President Donald Trump and the consequences of his trade war on Quebec. The opposition, on the other hand, hopes to focus on other issues, from sovereignty and culture to health care and education.
Who is running?
The main parties and leaders are:
- Coalition avenir Québec – Christine Fréchette (premier) | Incumbent centre-right, nationalist government seeking re-election
- Quebec Liberal Party – Charles Milliard (leader) | Federalist, centrist party and official opposition after the last election (comparable to Liberal Party of Canada)
- Québec solidaire – Ruba Ghazal + Sol Zanetti (co-leaders) | Sovereigntist, left-leaning third-place party in the legislature after last election (comparable to federal NDP)
- Parti Québécois – Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (leader) | Sovereigntist, left-leaning party could jump from fourth place in the legislature to first, forming government (comparable to Bloc Québécois)
- Parti conservateur du Québec – Éric Duhaime (leader) | Populist, centre-right political party (comparable to Conservative Party of Canada)
Why it matters
The PQ is leading in most polls and has focused its campaign on Quebec sovereignty, pledging to pursue a referendum even if it only wins a minority government. Of course, support for sovereignty is down, but that could always change. For example, a new federal omnibus bill (more on that in a moment) could potentially alienate Quebec voters as a similar bill did when Prime Minister Stephen Harper was in power. In an era of mass change, nothing is set in stone. And while a referendum would still involve a separate democratic process and difficult constitutional negotiations, some argue that the act of holding a referendum – or having a separatist government in power in Quebec – could create uncertainty during a trade war and weaken Canada’s ability to negotiate with the United States and other countries. That raises the question: Does economic uncertainty make sovereignty less practical or make political control more important? Regardless, this election is not only consequential for Quebec, but for the future of Canada as well.
Where does the campaign stand?
Polling suggests a competitive race involving the PQ, Liberals and CAQ, with Québec solidaire and the Conservatives also capable of influencing the result. With five significant parties, the winner will depend not only on the popular vote but on vote efficiency: translating support into first-place finishes in enough ridings to form government. As it stands, the PQ not only leads in popular support, but its vote is highly efficient. Whereas the Quebec Liberal vote is heavily centred on the anglophone and allophone Montreal ridings, meaning their vote is highly inefficient and will make the job of forming government much harder.
Want to know more?
Better understand our system of governance in Social Studies Chapter One, ideological debates in Quebec and Canada in Social Studies Chapter Two, and the issues of cultural identity and secession in Canada at a Crossroads Chapter Three.