Well, that was…something, eh?
BC election officials promised results within an hour of polls closing. Not so much, as it turns out! Instead, we’ll have to wait until next week, likely, to know who actually won the race.
As you’ll remember from the start of the school year, we suggested the BC election (and tonight’s race in New Brunswick) would be a squeaker. And the polls didn’t lie, with the NDP (so far) garnering 44.6% of the vote to 43.6% for the BC Conservatives and 8.2% for the Greens.
Of course, votes that close don’t always translate into an equally close seat count in our quirky first-past-the-post electoral system. Our elections (we know you know, but just in case…) are not party or leader popularity contests, nor even representative of the overall vote totals (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing).
In this year’s BC election, however, the seat breakdown closely mirrors the popular vote. The NDP won (or are leading) in 46 ridings (electoral districts) and the BC Conservatives won (or are leading) in 45 ridings. The Greens? They look to have scored two seats, meaning they hold the balance of power.
And that means what exactly?!
Well, to form a majority government – to rule for the next four years and pass their legislative agenda without compromise – a political party needs to have at least 47 seats in the BC legislature. And with the NDP and Conservatives both falling short of that mark, well, it will be the Greens who get to play Kingmaker.
The Green Party – who’s leader lost her seat in the legislature – can officially (think: supply-and-confidence agreement) or unofficially (think: vote-by-vote support or abstention) help top-up one party or another, allowing them to survive confidence votes. After all, two more votes in the BC legislature will help either the NDP or the Conservatives cross the 47-vote threshold required to govern.
This isn’t new and, despite what some think, it’s perfectly legitimate within our Westminster system of government. In fact, BC lived through a very similar election outcome in 2017. In that election, the Greens also held the balance of power, helping the NDP form government, even though the BC Liberals (who became BC United, who folded into the BC Conservatives) won more seats, but not enough to form a majority.
Confusing, but interesting!
And all of that nuance should help you understand what comes next in BC.
First things first
Before deciding who gets to govern, first we (obviously) need to count all of the votes. There will be at least two recounts – they’re automatic in ridings that were decided by fewer than 100 votes – and then there are all of the mail-in-ballots that still needed to be counted, possibly throwing some additional close races into recounts as well. All told, 49,000 ballots need to be reviewed and that will take until October 28th.
The Conservatives won a riding in Surrey – a large suburb of Vancouver – by 112 votes. Could absentee ballots force this riding to be recounted? Possibly and, if the NDP win it, they will have the 47 seats needed to form a majority government.
But here’s another scenario: the NDP won two seats by fewer than 100 votes and they’re being recounted. That recount – or the addition of mail-in-ballots – could swing one or both to the Conservatives. If they pick up both – and hold that aforementioned riding in Surrey – they get to form a majority government.
See? Still lots to be decided.
BUT!
If, after all the counting is complete, the NDP and Conservatives still find themselves shy of 47 seats in the legislature? Then it will be up to the Greens to help one party gain the confidence of the legislature; they will decide who will form the next BC government.
And let’s call a spade-a-spade: if the Greens hold the balance of power, the NDP will form government. The Green Party leader said as much in her concession speech on election night, and there is the precedence of 2017.
But the Greens will extract a price from the NDP.
Though many see the NDP as being environmentally friendly, Green voters don’t believe they’re green enough. In other words, the Greens will ask the NDP to do more for the environment in exchange for power. That, after all, is the quid in the quid pro quo of minority governments, like it or not.
Don’t forget!
Fear not, Conservatives! Even if an NDP-Green alliance means roughly 52% of British Columbians get the rule the province as if they received 100% of the vote, a government that can only count on 48 votes in the legislature (maybe only 47, as one member will likely need to take on the role of Speaker) is living a dicey life.
What if someone is sick and misses a vote? What if someone has to quit politics due to scandal or for family reasons? What if someone in caucus just doesn’t want to play nice on a particular vote, especially a confidence vote? What happens then?
Well, maybe a key piece of legislation that keeps the Greens and NDP allied gets killed and the whole arrangement dies. Maybe a byelection needs to be called and the Conservatives get dealt a better hand.
You see what we’re saying here?
A government ruling with a bare minimum majority will have to skate very carefully on thin ice, likely having to work across party lines to stay in power. Even then, the next BC election might not be four years down the road, but much, much sooner.
What minority governments giveth, they can also take away.
Important note of nuance
We’ve said this again and again: though the BC Conservatives haven’t formed government in BC in nearly a Century, small-c conservatives (those who are conservative in ideology, if not name) have held power more often than not in BC’s history. Though John Rustad’s ability to revive the BC Conservative brand is impressive (if helped by brand confusion with the popular Pierre Poilievre-led federal Conservatives…yes, that happened), BC conservatism isn’t new. So, be wary of narratives suggesting this wave of conservatism is much more than the natural ebb-and-flow of BC politics.
One last note
What is remarkable is the ever-hardening of ideologies (conservative and progressive politics might ebb-and-flow, but rarely have the numbers been so hardened and so stark between the two…aka no middle ground and little movement between the two sides), especially along urban-rural lines.
And, yes, the NDP won a couple of rural seats (helped along by vote splits thanks to ex-BC United MLAs running as independents). And, yes, the Conservatives won a couple of urban ridings (helped along by vote splits on the left between the Greens and NDP). But overall? Rural BC is painted blue and urban Vancouver is painted orange, and the outlying suburbs split, as you’d assume, where urban meets rural.
This is a problem.
As you’ve likely seen across Nature Labs, we’re underscoring why the ever-growing divide between a hardening left and right mimics all the worst outcomes of division that we see playing out in the US. And when the left-right divide is underscored by an urban-rural, have-have not dynamic? Well, we’ve got problems that aren’t easy to resolve.
Best case scenario: whoever wins in BC will govern with humility and work to help those who didn’t support their agenda see themselves valued in the policies they put forward. That will lower the temperature and ensure there is still some room for conversation between the two solitudes.
Worst case: whoever wins the BC election will govern arrogantly – if not immediately, then with time. They won’t listen to dissenters, only furthering the wedge between the left and right, urban and rural. Resentment, over time festers, creating no room for compromise, deepening echo chambers and giving way, possibly, to the rise of political violence.
Think that sounds extreme? Just look south. We’re not immune. We’re not different or special.
This election – any election – isn’t just about, say, winning a vote that prioritizes helping the economy to help nature, or helping nature to help the economy. It’s about finding solutions to all of our interconnected, complex problems that bring us together, rather than pull us apart.
That’s why the BC election matters. That’s why all of this matters.