Explaining your world, today:
If you’ve made it to Chapter Two, you know we talk extensively about context and why it matters. The provincial elections taking place in Canada this fall? They’re proof and point that we all need a bit more context in our lives.
How so? Well, unless you’re from Saskatchewan, most of you probably have no idea what the Saskatchewan Party is or what they stand for. You should know! The Saskatchewan Party has and will likely will continue to hold power!
The Saskatchewan Party was formed in 1997 to be a pro-economy liberal-conservative coalition, opposing the left-of-centre provincial NDP. And that coalition succeeded, gaining power in 2007 and holding it through to this year’s election. But along the way, the big-L federal Liberal vote in Saskatchewan began to fade, with fewer and fewer voters identifying as big-L Liberals. And while the Saskatchewan Party is still, in theory, a coalition of the two parties, in all reality it’s a conservative party (not unlike the federal Conservative Party who, not coincidentally, hold every federal riding in the province). Or, put another way, conservative members and conservative policies dominate the Saskatchewan Party because, well, that’s were there votes are in Saskatchewan!
The more you know.
But wait, there’s more!
New Brunswick’s incumbent premier, Blaine Higgs, hails from the Progressive Conservative Party. That name is a holdover from the days of old when almost every conservative party in the land was known as the Progressive Conservatives.
After Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives were roundly defeated in 1993, the PC brand became, shall we say, less popular. And with time – including the rise of new parties and provincial scandals that further muddied the PC brand – the Progressive Conservative party rebanded, merged, or outright died across many parts of the country.
But not in New Brunswick! And that’s a bit ironic.
Blaine Higgs – love him or hate him – doesn’t really subscribe to the PC-brand of politics of old. He’s very much a hard line, new school conservative, and is doing quite well, electorally, as a result. See? It is a little bit ironic that one of Canada’s last Progressive Conservative leaders isn’t really a Progressive Conservative at all.
Thanks context!
Oh! And we still need to talk about BC – the BC Conservatives, specifically.
Their name seems pretty straight forward, right? Yes…but there’s more, dare we say, context to this story – and this bit is really important.
BC is often seen as a progressive, left-leaning province. It’s not called the ‘left coast’ for nothing. And, for that reason, it’s probably why few batted an eye when they read Wednesday morning’s Globe and Mail.
The Globe proclaimed that “Conservatives have not won an election in B.C. in almost a century.” And while that’s technically true, it’s a deeply misleading comment.
Though BC’s NDP – a party found on the left side of the political spectrum (covered in Social Studies Chapter Two) – has periodically held power in BC, their success has been the exception rather than the rule. In fact, it’s conservatives who have most often governed the province – in official and unofficial coalitions or under different party banners.
Since the big-C Conservatives last won a BC provincial election nearly a century ago, small-c conservatives romped to victory numerous times as part of the Social Credit Party. Indeed, from 1952 until 1991, minus three years in the early 70s, the Social Credit – conservatives – led the province.
That party, like so many in Canadian history, was resigned to the garbage bin after one too many scandals (actually, in the case of BC’s Social Credit, it died due to straight up weirdness.). But conservative voters still needed a home after the death of the Social Credit, especially after two successive NDP victories, and thus the BC Liberal Party was reborn.
Now, most of you are wondering what a liberal party has to do with conservative politics. Well, remember the story of the Saskatchewan Party? Same deal here.
The BC Liberals were a pro-enterprise federal Liberal-federal Conservative-anti-NDP hybrid, but always leaned a bit more right (conservative) than centre (liberal). Why? Again, that’s where the votes were. And though the BC Liberals might have been more centrist than the Saskatchewan Party, they were still viewed by many as right-of-centre (conservative). And guess what? The (conservative) BC Liberals governed BC for 17 years, until they too succumbed to scandal and, eventually, outright collapse.
What does this all mean?
Well, when the BC Liberal Party (eventually, disastrously rebranded the BC United Party) imploded, BC conservative voters needed yet another home and they found one in – you guessed it – the born-again John Rustad-led BC Conservative Party. (Fun fact: John Rustad was a member of those previous, conservative BC Liberal governments, before being kicked out of caucus prior to the party’s demise.)
So, while it’s true the Conservative Party hasn’t won an election in BC in nearly a century, conservatives have ruled BC far more often than not over the last century.
See? That’s important context! And Canada’s largest daily newspaper kinda misled readers by suggesting otherwise, only reinforcing stereotypes about BC’s politics that, while not totally wrong, aren’t totally right either: Canada’s western-most province is actually way more conservative than most Canadians realize.
Which is why the sudden rise of the BC Conservative Party shouldn’t be shocking, nor will it be unprecedented if they win the provincial election this October. And nor should we be amazed if the Pierre Poilievre-led federal Conservatives win the most seats in BC in the next federal election. Any story suggesting otherwise? It’s missing key context we all need to know in order to better understand our country.
One Final Word:
This post focuses a lot on Social Studies – the workings of our political system – as well as the importance of good research and full-fact storytelling. What you might have missed, however, is the role of science in all of this.
You see, good research – good storytelling and good policymaking – is all about good data. And good data? That’s science.
Angus Reid’s Shachi Kurl explains the importance of science, data and polling in Chapter Eight, in case you want to skip ahead, but we also encourage you to follow Canada’s provincial elections with Philippe J. Fournier’s 338Canada. His web site aggregates the polls and breaks down each provincial election with, you guessed it, scientific precision.
And why not? Analyzing polls is Philippe’s side hustle. His day job? Astrophysics.
See? Politics is more than social studies. Just a little bit of extra context to end your week.