About Monday Night (Political) Football
Wacky night, eh? And I’m not (just) talking about the Falcons upsetting the Eagles.
Sure, the NDP hung on to their Winnipeg stronghold. And though their vote share decreased, it was a solid victory for the NDP and Jagmeet Singh’s job is safe. Even Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who significantly increased their vote share, will likely be happy with the result.
The Liberals however? Eek!
Though they were never in the Winnipeg by-election race, the Liberal vote share decreased significantly. And that may have been the better of the two results for Justin Trudeau last night. For the second time since June, the governing party lost one of their safest seats in the nation, albeit narrowly, losing a Montreal by-election to Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois.
Undoubtedly there will be a recount and, as yesterday proved, the Liberals didn’t prorogue Parliament, despite the polls showing a likely loss in Montreal. But the knives will be out for the prime minister and his leadership might well be challenged internally. Of course, before the Liberals can push out Trudeau, his government might well face a vote of non-confidence put forward by the Conservatives during one of their allotted opposition days in the House of Commons. We’ve already discussed that the Liberals might well survive this vote, with the help of the NDP (who need to raise more money to fight an election and want to see their pharmacare bill passed) or the Bloc (who might want to extract a better deal for Quebec, which they can promote during the next election), but after last night, it’s possible all four opposition parties (don’t forget the Greens!) will want to take on a weakened Liberal Party sooner than later.
What of an internal Liberal coup? While our system doesn’t operate like the American system (the Liberals don’t automatically have a convention prior to a federal election to nominate their leader), there are democratic tools available to the Liberals to challenge Trudeau’s leadership. The most likely? MPs and party big-wigs loudly and publicly calling for his resignation. Or, in other words, death by a thousand bad publicity cuts. That approach is no guarantee though – remember, the Canadian prime minister, the leader of the party – has enormous power. If Trudeau wants to cling to power, he probably can.
So, what does this all mean?
Canadian politics is in a state of flux. All bills before the House and the Senate are in jeopardy if the government falls. New policy will likely face an uncertain path forward. Different economic sectors that rely on government funding or decisions might be impacted. So too might some science and research, seeing as the federal government is the largest funder of research in Canada. And ditto for the arts. Plus, news stories – real, partisan, and fake – will circulate heavily online, and that means we all need to be aware of the information we consume and share.
All of that and, apparently, don’t hate on the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons. Who knew?!