Here’s a recap of what we discussed at the end of September in anticipation of several provincial elections this fall:
Voting Confidence
As we’ve been discussing over the last several weeks, the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives indeed put forward a motion of non-confidence in the House of Commons today, with the goal of bringing down the Justin Trudeau-led Liberal government and forcing a federal election.
The result? As predicted, the government won. The House expressed confidence in the Liberals and an election has been avoided.
As we’ve covered previously, a minority government – a party that doesn’t have a majority of the seats in the House of Commons – can’t lose a vote of confidence. And to survive a confidence vote as a minority government, the Liberals not only needed all of their MPs to vote down the Tory motion, they also needed help from the Bloc Québécois or the NDP.
Turns out they got support from both parties!
Why?
Well, to recap, the Bloc wants a better deal for Quebec, which in turn they can use to justify their existence in the next federal vote. And the NDP – yes, that NDP that just ripped up their Supply-and-Confidence Agreement with the Liberals – wants to ensure their pharmacare bill becomes law…and that they have more time to raise a few more dollars to fight the next election.
So, there you have it: Justin Trudeau lives to fight another day. And though a federal election this fall seems increasingly unlikely, that doesn’t mean there won’t be elections in Canada this year.
Hold on, what?
It’s true! There will be three elections in Canada this fall: provincial elections!
Electoral Fun, Provincial Style
When an election is called in Canada, at the federal or provincial level, a writ is issued.
A what?!
The writ is a written order (what an imaginative term, eh?) instructing election officers to hold an election (obviously). When the writ is drawn up and signed, we call it dropping the writ. It’s less of a mic drop (it’s pretty formal and undramatic, after all) and more like dropping the gloves in hockey: the fight is officially on.
BC and New Brunswick have officially dropped the writ – they’re officially fighting for votes – and Saskatchewan will join the party very soon.
All three provinces are expecting relatively close elections, even though Saskatchewan’s will almost certainly return the status quo: a Scott Moe-led Saskatchewan Party majority.
New Brunswick is a toss-up. It’s a very close two-way race between the incumbent Blaine Higgs-led Progressive Conservatives and the provincial Liberal Party, but with one very important caveat. The Green Party is polling very well at 15% and could either hold the balance of power in the legislature or split the vote in key ridings, allowing the PCs to snag a majority (even if they lose the popular vote) thanks to our first-past-the-post electoral system.
Bottom line? New Brunswick will be interesting…but probably not as interesting as BC.
Yes, the Greens will play a role in this election as well, but their vote – unlike New Brunswick – is fairly efficient (read: concentrated). That means the Greens will likely win 1-2 seats, but won’t split the left-of-centre vote in key swing ridings. And in the key swing ridings? It’s a two-way dog fight between the incumbent David Eby-led provincial NDP and the upstart BC Conservative Party led by John Rustad. In fact, this election might be one of BC’s closest on record.
In all three elections, economic issues are front and centre – namely cost-of-living issues, like housing – as well as crime/drug policy and health care. The environment is on the radar too, especially in BC and New Brunswick, but it’s not a top issue. At least in the way you might think.
Polls tell us that while the environment is a top-ten issue for urban voters, it likely won’t be the policy that determines their final voting intention. But in rural Saskatchewan and BC, the opposite is true. A backlash against environmental policies will drive some voters to cast their ballots for candidates that will fight environmental regulations and land conservation.
Maybe you want to know why this is the case. Good! We cover this in detail in Chapter Two, across all courses. So, hold your judgement, no matter where you stand, until you know the context behind these motivating factors.
And speaking of context, that’s also the subject of tomorrow’s post!
Context Party! (Or Party Context)
If you’ve made it to Chapter Two, you know we talk extensively about context and why it matters. The provincial elections taking place in Canada this fall? They’re proof and point that we all need a bit more context in our lives.
How so? Well, unless you’re from Saskatchewan, most of you probably have no idea what the Saskatchewan Party is or what they stand for. You should know! The Saskatchewan Party has and will likely will continue to hold power!
The Saskatchewan Party was formed in 1997 to be a pro-economy liberal-conservative coalition, opposing the left-of-centre provincial NDP. And that coalition succeeded, gaining power in 2007 and holding it through to this year’s election. But along the way, the big-L federal Liberal vote in Saskatchewan began to fade, with fewer and fewer voters identifying as big-L Liberals. And while the Saskatchewan Party is still, in theory, a coalition of the two parties, in all reality it’s a conservative party (not unlike the federal Conservative Party who, not coincidentally, hold every federal riding in the province). Or, put another way, conservative members and conservative policies dominate the Saskatchewan Party because, well, that’s were there votes are in Saskatchewan!
The more you know.
But wait, there’s more!
New Brunswick’s incumbent premier, Blaine Higgs, hails from the Progressive Conservative Party. That name is a holdover from the days of old when almost every conservative party in the land was known as the Progressive Conservatives.
After Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives were roundly defeated in 1993, the PC brand became, shall we say, less popular. And with time – including the rise of new parties and provincial scandals that further muddied the PC brand – the Progressive Conservative party rebanded, merged, or outright died across many parts of the country.
But not in New Brunswick! And that’s a bit ironic.
Blaine Higgs – love him or hate him – doesn’t really subscribe to the PC-brand of politics of old. He’s very much a hard line, new school conservative, and is doing quite well, electorally, as a result. See? It is a little bit ironic that one of Canada’s last Progressive Conservative leaders isn’t really a Progressive Conservative at all.
Thanks context!
Oh! And we still need to talk about BC – the BC Conservatives, specifically.
Their name seems pretty straight forward, right? Yes…but there’s more, dare we say, context to this story – and this bit is really important.
BC is often seen as a progressive, left-leaning province. It’s not called the ‘left coast’ for nothing. And, for that reason, it’s probably why few batted an eye when they read Wednesday morning’s Globe and Mail.
The Globe proclaimed that “Conservatives have not won an election in B.C. in almost a century.” And while that’s technically true, it’s a deeply misleading comment.
Though BC’s NDP – a party found on the left side of the political spectrum (covered in Social Studies Chapter Two) – has periodically held power in BC, their success has been the exception rather than the rule. In fact, it’s conservatives who have most often governed the province – in official and unofficial coalitions or under different party banners.
Since the big-C Conservatives last won a BC provincial election nearly a century ago, small-c conservatives romped to victory numerous times as part of the Social Credit Party. Indeed, from 1952 until 1991, minus three years in the early 70s, the Social Credit – conservatives – led the province.
That party, like so many in Canadian history, was resigned to the garbage bin after one too many scandals (actually, in the case of BC’s Social Credit, it died due to straight up weirdness.). But conservative voters still needed a home after the death of the Social Credit, especially after two successive NDP victories, and thus the BC Liberal Party was reborn.
Now, most of you are wondering what a liberal party has to do with conservative politics. Well, remember the story of the Saskatchewan Party? Same deal here.
The BC Liberals were a pro-enterprise federal Liberal-federal Conservative-anti-NDP hybrid, but always leaned a bit more right (conservative) than centre (liberal). Why? Again, that’s where the votes were. And though the BC Liberals might have been more centrist than the Saskatchewan Party, they were still viewed by many as right-of-centre (conservative). And guess what? The (conservative) BC Liberals governed BC for 17 years, until they too succumbed to scandal and, eventually, outright collapse.
What does this all mean?
Well, when the BC Liberal Party (eventually, disastrously rebranded the BC United Party) imploded, BC conservative voters needed yet another home and they found one in – you guessed it – the born-again John Rustad-led BC Conservative Party. (Fun fact: John Rustad was a member of those previous, conservative BC Liberal governments, before being kicked out of caucus prior to the party’s demise.)
So, while it’s true the Conservative Party hasn’t won an election in BC in nearly a century, conservatives have ruled BC far more often than not over the last century.
See? That’s important context! And Canada’s largest daily newspaper kinda misled readers by suggesting otherwise, only reinforcing stereotypes about BC’s politics that, while not totally wrong, aren’t totally right either: Canada’s western-most province is actually way more conservative than most Canadians realize.
Which is why the sudden rise of the BC Conservative Party shouldn’t be shocking, nor will it be unprecedented if they win the provincial election this October. And nor should we be amazed if the Pierre Poilievre-led federal Conservatives win the most seats in BC in the next federal election. Any story suggesting otherwise? It’s missing key context we all need to know in order to better understand our country.
One Final Word:
This post focuses a lot on Social Studies – the workings of our political system – as well as the importance of good research and full-fact storytelling. What you might have missed, however, is the role of science in all of this.
You see, good research – good storytelling and good policymaking – is all about good data. And good data? That’s science.
Angus Reid’s Shachi Kurl explains the importance of science, data and polling in Chapter Eight, in case you want to skip ahead, but we also encourage you to follow Canada’s provincial elections with Philippe J. Fournier’s 338Canada. His web site aggregates the polls and breaks down each provincial election with, you guessed it, scientific precision.
And why not? Analyzing polls is Philippe’s side hustle. His day job? Astrophysics.
See? Politics is more than social studies. Just a little bit of extra context to end your week.