Quebec elected the separatist Parti Québécois to form a minority government in the provincial election, reopening the sovereignty debate and adding another front in our current unity debates. How did the PQ win when support for sovereignty in Quebec is so weak right now? What will their victory mean for Canada and the trade war with the US? These are the questions. Let’s get into it!
What happened
The PQ won 59 seats, short of the 64 needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly (the name for their provincial legislature). The Liberals emerged as Official Opposition, but the Parti conservateur du Québec(PCQ) broke through with a strong result and almost matched the Liberals in the popular vote. With the pro-sovereignty, left-wing Québec solidaire holding the balance of power, the question now is how long can the newly elected PQ remain in power and will they be able to build sufficient support to pursue the sovereignty referendum they promised during the election?
Why the PQ won
The PQ returned to power after last holding government in 2014. This time, the party won by combining dissatisfaction with the outgoing Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) government with a campaign that focused on a demand for change, especially around cost-of-living issues. Though the PQ campaigned on a promise to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty against the backdrop of historically low support for Quebec independence, the PQ benefited from a motivated base of supporters (those who remain focused on Quebec sovereignty) and a competitive five-way race that fractured the vote. The Liberals (federalist and ideologically liberal), the PCQ (federalist and ideologically conservative), and CAQ (nationalist), in essence, split the anti-referendum vote, allowing the PQ to form government with the lowest share of the popular vote in Canadian political history.
A Liberal opposition
The Quebec Liberals formed the Official Opposition and, based on their seat count, will attempt to position themselves as the main federalist alternative to the PQ. Under the leadership of the relatively unknown Charles Milliard, they struggled for much of the campaign to stand out, even though the party shares a name with their popular and like-minded federal Liberal cousins. But thanks to the CAQ’s electoral collapse, the Liberals were able to recover late in the race, largely due to support in and around the island of Montreal.
Conservative breakthrough
The Parti conservateur du Québec made a real breakthrough by turning a close third-place finish in the popular vote into a meaningful caucus in the National Assembly. Though a distinct party from the federal Conservatives, the PCQ ran on a conservative, somewhat populist platform that resonated strongly in traditionally conservative regions, such as Québec City. It’s the first time since the 1930s that a traditional provincial conservative party in name won seats in the National Assembly (the CAQ was more nationalist than conservative, though they leaned right on the ideological spectrum). Their strong showing will now allow the PCQ to compete with the Liberals for the federalist vote.
Québec solidaire and the balance of power
Québec solidaire did not win the election – and actually finished fifth in the election’s popular vote – but their seat count in the National Assembly gives the pro-sovereignty, left-wing party the chance to hold the balance of power. As the party most closely aligned with the new minority PQ government and the only other sovereigntist party in the legislature, the government may need at least some QS support if it wants to move a referendum agenda forward. At the same time, QS is not exclusively focused on Quebec independence. Its priorities also focus on housing, social justice, and climate (similar in this regard to the federal NDP), so support for the PQ is not automatic.
The CAQ collapse
The Coalition avenir Québec – Quebec’s incumbent nationalist government – was deeply unpopular. Despite changing leaders prior to the election, CAQ could not overcome an inefficient vote (a support base that was spread across the province, rather than concentrated in specific, winnable ridings). Though they finished fourth in the popular vote, the party stunningly ended the election with no seats in the National Assembly, raising questions about the sustainability of their “third way” nationalist approach to Quebec politics.
What it means for Canada
For Canada, the PQ’s victory brings sovereignty back to the centre of provincial politics at the same time the country is dealing with a trade war and threats to our national sovereignty. It also comes at a time when Alberta is poised to hold its own referendum on whether to pursue secession. The PQ’s success could make intergovernmental relations more complicated, especially if the government starts pushing more aggressively on issues such as language, identity, or constitutional change. Even the emerging national consensus around pipelines could be threatened, with the new Quebec government (possibly enhanced by the further-left Québec solidaire) possibly exposing national divisions around climate action. After all, environmental sovereignty is important to some Quebecers, just as economic sovereignty matters to many Albertans.
Will a referendum actually happen?
Good question! A referendum in Quebec became more likely in principle because the PQ promised one (although it has pledged to wait until after Donald Trump leaves the White House), but less likely in practice because the PQ did not win a majority. The party would likely need support, or at least tolerance, from Québec solidaire to move forward. And while QS could help the PQ on some parliamentary questions, it might refuse to fully endorse a referendum, given the current low support for independence. Bottom line: a Quebec referendum is more likely today, but it’s not guaranteed.
A final thought
For many, the focus of the Quebec election result will be on the new separatist government and what that might mean for national unity. Fair enough. But for many in Quebec, the result might increase frustration with Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Though the PQ was held to a minority in the National Assembly, at no point in Canadian history has a party come so close to forming a majority government with such a small proportion of the popular vote. Indeed, when the fourth-placed party in the popular vote wins no seats in the legislature, but the fifth-placed party in the popular vote is poised to hold the balance of power, questions will inevitably arise.
Of course, this isn’t the first time in our system – provincially or federally – that the popular vote has failed to align with the seat count. In the 2021 federal election, the Erin O’Toole-led Conservatives won more votes than the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals, but the Liberals won more seats and formed government. But this result in Quebec – the byproduct of a competitive five-way race – is even more glaring in terms of proportional representation (or lack thereof).
Will the outcome renew calls for electoral reform in Quebec or elsewhere in Canada? Or, will the outcome be seen as an outlier, with calls for reform dissipating in the face of more pressing issues? This might be worth watching.
Related Resources
Referenced Resources
Parti Québécois to form minority government in Quebec
CAQ wiped off the map: Key takeaways from Quebec election
Quebec on the cusp of electing separatist government
Quebec votes 2026: Here is the latest news from the Quebec election
A country with its elbows up faces separation threats on two fronts