Home News How the United States Midterm Elections Might Affect Canada (includes reflection questions)

How the United States Midterm Elections Might Affect Canada (includes reflection questions)

American voters have delivered a major setback to President Donald Trump after the November 3^rd midterm elections. Democrats are projected to control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, giving them new opportunities to challenge his administration. How does this impact Canada, the trade war, and the state of democracy in the United States? Let’s get in to it!

What’s a midterm election anyway?

A midterm election takes place halfway through a US president’s four-year term, when Americans elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate. The president is not on the ballot, but the results determine who controls Congress and how easily the president can advance their agenda. As such, midterms matter because Congress makes laws, controls federal spending, and scrutinizes the president’s actions, so a shift in control can create a powerful check on the White House.

What happened – and why Canada mattered in a US election

The midterms changed control of Congress, the legislative branch of the US government. Democrats won races across America, including Senate victories in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Kansas.

Inflation, high gas prices, and cost-of-living issues were key factors in the election – and help explain why Trump’s trade war with Canada became an issue. In CNBC’s voter poll, 65% of respondents said tariffs had hurt the national economy, compared with 22% who said they had helped.

Canada became especially relevant in states whose businesses and communities depend on cross-border trade, including Maine and Michigan. The trade war also featured in races in Iowa, Kansas, and Kentucky, where agricultural and manufacturing disputes, along with provincial bans on U.S. liquor sales, put trade relations with Canada in the spotlight.

So, while the election didn’t turn solely on the trade war with Canada – or on Canada’s retaliatory tariffs – cross-border trade was an important issue in several key races.

Will the midterm results impact the trade war?

In short, an immediate change is unlikely. The election changes the political pressure on Trump, but it does not cancel existing tariffs or settle Canada-US negotiations. While the two countries have reportedly made progress on a deal in the last few days – Prime Minister Mark Carney says the US is asking for less and is willing to give more – they still have no new agreement in place.

A Democratic Congress could scrutinize tariff decisions, investigate their economic effects, and try to limit presidential trade powers. But passing restrictions would not necessarily be enough: Trump could veto legislation, and overriding him would require substantial Republican support.

And then there’s this: Canadians can’t assume that Democrats favour unrestricted free trade. Protectionism – using government policy to favour domestic producers – has support in both parties. While Democrats may oppose Trump’s methods, that does not necessarily mean they oppose measures that disadvantage foreign competitors, including Canadian ones.

The important differences in our political systems

A central difference between our two systems of government is how the executive is held accountable. In the United States, the president and Congress have separate electoral mandates; in Canada, the government must maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.

Consider these differences to understand why the midterm results won’t necessarily produce immediate policy changes:

The new Congress takes office in January. Congressional terms begin on January 3 following the election, so the incoming majority’s formal powers do not begin today.

A president can veto legislation. Congress can override a veto only with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. A simple Democratic majority therefore cannot force every proposed change into law.

Executive action remains important in US politics. Trump has implemented much of his tariff agenda through powers that earlier Congresses delegated to the presidency. An executive order is not unlimited authority to make any policy the president wants, but it is a powerful tool that might allow Trump to continue to pursue his agenda, including the trade war with Canada, in the face of Congressional opposition.

What does this result mean for democracy?

The midterms offer evidence that voters can still impose meaningful political costs on a president’s party. The breadth of the Democrats’ victory also makes the overall change in congressional control less dependent on disputes over a handful of close races. President Trump was reported overnight as saying he was willing to accept the results, although that statement is not a guarantee of future conduct.

But democracy is not healthy simply because one party wins. The test is whether officials respect lawful results, allow effective scrutiny, protect rights, and accept limits on their power.

In other words, the election does not erase polarization, misinformation, intimidation, or political violence in America. Nor can the damage done to US democracy over the last several years be repaired overnight. Long-term solutions require sustained institutional and cultural change, not just a different congressional majority.

Reflection Questions

1. Canada–US Relationship: How might a change in control of the US Congress affect Canada’s relationship with the United States? What opportunities or challenges could this create for Canada?

2. Economic Connections: Why might a trade policy designed to protect American businesses also hurt American workers and consumers? Can you think of similar consequences for Canadians?

3. Political Perspectives: Both Democrats and Republicans can support protectionist policies. Why is it important to look beyond political party labels when evaluating government policies?

4. Democracy and Accountability: What does this election demonstrate about the ability of voters to hold political leaders accountable? Is winning an election enough to demonstrate that a democracy is healthy? Why or why not?

5. Comparing Systems: The article describes differences between the American and Canadian political systems. Which features of each system do you think are most effective at holding leaders accountable? Explain your reasoning.

6. Checks and Balances: Why might it be important for a president’s power to be limited by Congress or other institutions? What are some potential advantages and disadvantages of having these limits?

7. Beyond Election Day: The article argues that democracy requires more than elections. What other responsibilities do citizens, political leaders, and institutions have in maintaining a healthy democracy?

8. Looking Ahead: If you were advising the Canadian government following these election results, what would you recommend it prioritize in its relationship with the United States? Why?

A Bigger Question

Can a country have a functioning democracy while experiencing deep political division? What responsibilities do citizens and elected leaders have to ensure that political disagreements do not undermine democratic institutions?