Think of what almost was.
If the BC Conservatives had found a way to win in BC and if the Progressive Conservatives had held on to win re-election in New Brunswick, conservatives would have ruled in every province save for Liberal-led Newfoundland and Labrador (where Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are in a (polling) dead heat) and NDP-led Manitoba (though Wab Kinew’s NDP is far more populist than Jagmeet Singh’s ultra-progressive federal NDP). That would have been quite remarkable in Canadian history, especially when you factor in that the Pierre Poilievre-led federal Conservatives enjoy a massive polling advantage over the Justin Trudeau-led federal Liberals, appearing poised to form the next federal government.
Even if a near-total sweep of Canadian elections didn’t occur, Canadian conservatives are still enjoying a moment right now. Is that because Canada is becoming more conservative? Well, yes and no.
Without question, with each passing election, we’re seeing a hardening of the conservative vote – a strong base that the political movement can now rely on election in and election out. That’s progress for the conservative movement, no doubt.
More than that though, what the recent elections and ongoing polling shows us is that the conservative ceiling – the potential voter pool – is rising as well. Arguably, that matters even more than a reliable base, as a higher ceiling leaves more room for error in our first-past-the-post electoral system, increasing the odds for the movement to form more robust governments.
However, there is a counter point: the conservative ceiling might be more about the moment than the movement.
As we’ve discussed previously, mixed results from the recent provincial elections means that the growing conservative ceiling might be about good conservative policies, but it also might be a reaction to the times (a moment that sees the electorate frustrated and scared, a motivational mix that can spark voters to go beyond their traditional ideological leanings).
Regardless, the conservative movement stands to benefit from a higher voter ceiling, at least for the foreseeable future. They’re well positioned to win elections that focus on a desire for change and conservative incumbents are holding onto power in the face of change momentum, as proven by recent victories in Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia.
If Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives convert their substantial polling advantage into seat gains in the next federal election, Canadian conservatives will have an incredible opportunity to advance their policy agenda.
With conservatives governing most of Canada’s most populous, constitutionally-influential provinces (and the BC NDP’s power having been significantly reduced, held in check by a strong BC Conservative opposition), and the federal Conservatives readying for a big majority government after the next federal election, there is a clear path to advance conservative policies without federal-provincial tension. That’s rare for any political movement, but it’s especially rare for conservatives in a country that, more often than not, has been governed by big-L Liberals.
Are super majorities a good thing? The answer probably depends on how you see the world and if your favourite party is in power or not. But whether you’re a progressive or a conservative – or march to the beat of your own ideological drummer – it’s always important to remember that what goes around comes around.
Yes, that’s a cliché, but it’s also true.
Politics, you see, is cyclical. And reactive. In our system, it’s easy for one party to have all the power – nationally, provincially or, in the rare case, at both levels at once – even if the true national perspective is more nuanced (or outright divided). And when one party has all the spoils of power, it’s easy to lose sight of the middle – it’s easy to govern as if the party’s base is the country, forgetting those with a different view.
This leads to resentment and anger. And, with time, it also leads to an overreaction, or course correction, by the other side when it is their turn to govern. And there will always be a next time. No power is absolute. No government lasts forever.
The lesson for progressive and conservative movements? Don’t lose sight of the reality our electoral system often obscures. If you don’t want an extreme ideological agenda to be shoved down your throat, resist the urge the advocate for or legislate one yourself, even if you have a super-majority to make it happen. And if you decide not to heed this advice? Don’t be surprised when the eventual course-correction is even more extreme, for that’s how the pendulum swings.
