What is Trudeau’s Legacy?

What Does Trudeau’s Resignation Mean? We’re Here to Help!

We’ve already highlighted the big news of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, but let’s get into the details: what does it mean, how will it unfold and what is prorogation anyway?

Part Three: What is Trudeau’s Legacy?

History, of course, can rarely be judged in the moment. We need time and space to fully weigh the impact of people and their actions. And it’s for this reason that we should all be wary of those with definitive opinions on the legacy of Justin Trudeau.

Sure, what we’re seeing in our feeds might be a fun hot take. We might think we know how history will judge Trudeau’s time in office. In reality, however, it is only dispassionate historians with the proper perspective on the issues of the day who will be well positioned to assess this moment.

Think about this:

  • Social Issues:

A hallmark of Justin Trudeau’s time in office was championing issues of equity – BIPOC-friendly policies, a diverse gender-balanced cabinet – but was also marked by acts of hypocrisy, including bullying and firing female members of cabinet and being outed for repeatedly wearing blackface to parties prior to holding office.

In his more popular years, Trudeau’s positions dovetailed with popular movements like Black Lives Matter. In his latter years in office, his policies chafed with an anti-woke backlash that has led corporations to radically rollback diversity and equity measures.

Did Trudeau help or hurt the cause he sought to help? Were his policies right, but the messenger wrong? Were his ideas too tied to a moment in time? Was he too aggressive, helping feed the backlash? Or was he not aggressive enough, allowing his actions to easily be undone by future governments? Time will tell.

  • Economics:

Trudeau promised to be a government for the middle class and one that would end child poverty, while also pledging to advance a “just transition” to greener industries. How did he do? Well, it depends on who you believe.

The national daycare program and the Canada Child Benefit helped lift nearly a half million children out of poverty, while easing the financial burden for parents. But that’s not the full story. Last year, child poverty spiked for the first time in years and most Canadians say life is unaffordable. In part, this shift is due to inflation and rising housing costs, which some point the finger at Trudeau for allowing to happen or, at least, get worse on his watch.

And then there’s this: Canadian productivity is down. This is a longer story for another day, but experts say we are behind most developed nations. Why? We haven’t trained the workforce well, we haven’t invested in research and innovated, and we haven’t structured our economy properly. It’s been happening for decades, but the problem is worsening, and it will eventually impact wages and government spending on future social programs.

So, is this Trudeau’s fault? Did his policies make bad problems worse? Or would our economy have been in trouble no matter who was in office, given the challenging times that coincided with his time in office (COVID, supply-chain disruption, global conflicts)? Maybe Trudeau didn’t act fast enough. Maybe he wasn’t bold enough with his interventions. Or maybe it’s an all-of-the-above scenario.

At the end of the day, Canadian perceptions of Trudeau’s actions will inform economic policy in the short term and that, of course, will shape our long-term outlook. Whether that’s positive or negative remains to be seen.

  • The Environment:

Trudeau and his government have been accused of being extremist environmental activists, hell-bent on destroying our economy. They’ve also been accused of being sell-outs to Big Oil, only paying lip service to the environmental challenges of our time.

These perceptions probably sum up what a difficult tightrope Trudeau tried to walk, insisting he could safeguard our environment while also growing our economy. It’s possible this promise – along with the one to advance reconciliation – put many of his policy priorities in conflict with each other on day one, setting himself up for failure by being the master of none.

Now, it’s true, Trudeau made bold commitments on the environment, whether to plant 2 billion trees, to protect 30% of Canada to help biodiversity, or to push Canada toward net zero emissions by 2050. And, yes, he did create new protected areas, but with many concessions to Indigenous rights and activities. And, yes, he did impose a carbon tax that may have been driving down national emissions, but he also made tax concessions to different regions that sparked division and led to questions about the overall effectiveness of the tax. And did the carbon tax drive inflation, increasing the cost-of-living? That’s a debate as well.

Maybe these are the better questions: Did Trudeau do enough for the environment while he had the power to impose sweeping changes? Did he do too much, knowing the economic timing wasn’t right? Was Trudeau too heavy handed in his approach, stoking a possible constitutional crisis and driving support for populism? Or were (are) the stakes so high, that his actions were needed, no matter the backlash? Will his environmental legacy be the change he created, or the policies he set back because of the anger he sparked? Until we see and feel the full consequences of climate change and biodiversity loss, as well as economic decline and populist anger, we probably won’t know the answer.

These issues, and many more, will ultimately define Justin Trudeau’s legacy. But we can say this for certain right now: whether you loved Trudeau or hated him, there’s no denying he was transformational, again, for better or worse.

via GIPHY

Trudeau will likely end up being the 7th longest serving prime minister in Canadian history, and one of the few to win three consecutive elections – one majority and two minorities.

He took a Liberal Party that appeared dead in the water from third place in the House of Commons to sustained power.

Trudeau came into office pledging openness and accountability and, it’s fair to say, failed to deliver, further centralizing power in the Office of the Prime Minister, cracking down on caucus (and cabinet) dissent, and overseeing a government that failed to communicate transparently.

He oversaw a period of mass disruption – COVID – and, without question, helped Canadians survive the pandemic. Literally. He also needlessly politicized the pandemic, using vaccines to drive a wedge between Canadians and between regions, leading to mass protests and divisions that impact our nation today.

And Trudeau’s inability to read the room and recognize his unpopularity will almost certainly lead to a change in government in the next election, and possibly doom the Liberals to multiple lost elections.

If Trudeau’s record sounds at all familiar, it’s because it is.

Stephen Harper was Canada’s sixth longest serving prime minister, winning three consecutive elections – two minorities and a majority.

Harper united Canada’s moribund conservative parties and led the movement to sustained power in the House of Commons.

He pledged openness and accountability in the wake of the sponsorship scandal and, it’s fair to say, didn’t deliver, further centralizing power in the Office of the Prime Minister, cracking down on caucus dissent, and overseeing a government that censored its bureaucrats from speaking publicly.

Harper oversaw a period of mass disruption – the Great Recession – and, without question, helped our economy – and Canadians – through it. He also needlessly politicized economic decisions, accusing those who opposed his positions as being foreign-funded radicals. That drove a wedge between Canadians and between regions, leading to mass protests and divisions that impact our nation today.

And his inability to read the room and recognize his unpopularity paved the way for the Trudeau government to be elected in 2015, and depressed Conservative fortunes for two more elections.

What are we trying to say?

Well, nothing happens in a vacuum. Each action comes with a reaction. The reaction, in politics, is often a course correction – and is usually more dramatic than the action it is responding to. As the pendulum swings, it speeds up, pushing our politics – our national discourse – further to the extremes.

via GIPHY

Trudeau’s brand of politics – again, whether you loved or hated it – wasn’t new. It was, in many ways, a reaction to Harper’s politics. And Harper? It was a course correction to the Chrétien-Martin years that, while not politically extremist, were seen as arrogant, sowing the seeds of regional division we see today.

And, yes, the political pendulum has always swung back and forth. That’s not the issue. The problem is that, in recent years, the swings have become more dramatic. Each bigger swing – each over reaction to the previous administration – deepens the divide between the east and the west, between urban and rural, between the left and the right, between globalists and populists. That’s not just bad for the country; it also leads to poorer policy choices in serious times.

Think about it:

We’re facing a deteriorating international rules-based order that has led to war and could eventually spark a nuclear war. The global economy is growing more protectionist and threatens to upend prosperity here and abroad. Specifically, our closest neighbour and biggest trading partner wants to ruin our economy or annex our nation. Ever-worsening environmental catastrophes are flooding or burning our communities, killing the life-giving systems that sustain us, and threaten to destabilize populations and economies. And misinformation – being sped up with the help of AI – is eroding trust in democracy, leading to conflict in Canada and globally.

This is our world. We should be united in tackling these, our shared challenges. We’re not.

Whether Trudeau helped or hurt the issues listed above will be for the historians to judge.Yet it’s hard to argue, here and now, that Justin Trudeau brought us together to make things better. And maybe he was a victim of the times, or maybe he was a victim of his ego. But no matter what you think, in times like these, we needed better. We will need better. That’s not on Trudeau, or the next leader up. That’s on us.

Politics, as we’ve said time and again, is a reflection of us. It’s a reflection of what we put into the system.

via GIPHY

If we don’t understand the issues (all of the issues, not just the ones we like or agree with) and if we don’t empathize with those with different opinions (not agree with them, but at least attempt to understand where they’re coming from) and if we don’t engage with the system (whether we love it, hate it, or want to change it) to work collaboratively for better, we’re dooming our politics to be reactionary and hollow. More importantly, we’re threatening every facet of our society and our future wellbeing.

So, if we may, rather than casting judgement on Trudeau – good, bad or indifferent – we suggest looking in the mirror and asking: What have I done to make the situation better?

After all, if we’re intent on futurecasting, it’s important to remember that historians will have much more to say about us – as a people, in this moment – than they will about those we elected to lead us.

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