Albertans decisively rejected beginning the constitutional process toward separation, while giving the provincial government a narrower and more complicated set of instructions on immigration, public services, voting rules, and provincial powers. What does this all mean for Alberta and for Canada? Let’s get into it!
The separation question
The question most of the country was focused on asked whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. Roughly 75% voted to remain in Canada, while about a quarter of voters cast a ballot to begin the separation process.
Without question, the result sends a clear message that a majority of Albertans want to remain in Canada. Indeed, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has stated that there won’t be a second, binding separation referendum on her watch. The result also makes it very unlikely that foreign governments – some of which have sought to interfere in or influence the referendum – will dispute the democratic outcome. This matters, especially given the economic and sovereignty challenges facing Canada.
That all said, the Alberta separatist movement won’t just disappear. With roughly half a million votes cast to begin the separation process, the movement remains strong and politically influential in Alberta – a reality that still poses a significant challenge for both the provincial and federal governments.
The other nine questions
As you will recall, the first five questions in Alberta’s referendum dealt mainly with immigration, access to services, and voting rules. The other four asked voters whether Alberta should work with other provinces to seek constitutional changes. How did Albertans vote?
- Question 1: Should Alberta have more provincial control over immigration, lower immigration levels, priority for economic migrants, and first access to jobs for Albertans? Yes leads with roughly 55% of the vote.
- Question 2: Should Alberta limit provincially funded programs to Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and people with Alberta-approved immigration status? Yes leads with roughly 56% of the vote.
- Question 3: Should Alberta require people with non-permanent immigration status to live in Alberta for 12 months before qualifying for provincial social supports? Yes leads with roughly 58% of the vote.
- Question 4: Should Alberta charge non-permanent residents a fee or premium for health care and education? Yes leads with roughly 57% of the vote.
- Question 5: Should Alberta require proof of Canadian citizenship to vote in Alberta provincial elections? Yes leads with roughly 64% of the vote.
- Question 6: Should provincial governments, rather than the federal government, choose judges for provincial King’s Bench and appeal courts? Yes leads with roughly 51% of the vote.
- Question 7: Should Alberta work with other provinces to abolish the appointed Senate? Yes leads with roughly 53% of the vote.
- Question 8: Should Alberta be allowed to opt out of federal programs in areas such as health care, education, and social services without losing associated federal funding? No leads with roughly 51% of the vote.
- Question 9: Should Alberta’s provincial laws have priority over conflicting federal laws in provincial or shared areas of jurisdiction? Yes leads with roughly 51% of the vote.
Though Question 10 (Alberta secession) received much of the national focus, these nine questions are not without controversy and have the chance to expose major divisions – in Alberta and across the country.
What happens next for Premier Smith?
Premier Danielle Smith and her government must now decide how much political weight to place on each result in the referendum. She sought a mandate to negotiate with Ottawa and other provinces. Although she received the result she advocated for on most questions, several produced only slim majorities. Is that sufficient backing to proceed with the proposals?
Then there is Premier Smith’s leadership. Her governing United Conservative Party (UCP) will gather in November for a scheduled party meeting. A formal leadership review (a process that could trigger a leadership vote and the possibility of Smith losing power) would require support from 22 of the party’s 87 constituency associations. Separatist activists have been trying to build that support. The result therefore might create an odd dynamic for the premier. She may have received the outcome she wanted, but some in Smith’s party may feel she went too far in allowing the referendum to happen, while others – possibly a majority of UCP members – may feel she didn’t go far enough in supporting secessionists. Could that divide cost Smith her leadership?
What happens next for the separatists?
Though Albertans delivered a decisive result for national unity, nearly 25% of referendum voters expressed their support, basically, for an independent Alberta. That matters. Why? Think back to the recent Quebec election: the pro-sovereignty Parti Québécois formed government with just 28% in that province.
In the wake of Alberta’s referendum, the question is not whether this result has settled the unity debate in the province, but what happens next. After all, many in the separatist movement believe the question was poorly worded, while others believe the timing was off, given the trade war with the United States. As we discussed above, there remains the possibility that separatists will try to oust Premier Danielle Smith and elect a leader of the governing party who is more sympathetic to their movement.
Another possibility? A new separatist party could emerge in Alberta, just as the Parti Québécois emerged as a vehicle for Quebec sovereignty. Such a party would likely focus on the Alberta ridings where support for beginning a separation process was strongest, especially parts of rural and northern Alberta. With a political base of 25% support, a separatist party could win seats and, almost certainly, split the centre-right vote, hurting the current government’s chances of re-election.
Constitutional questions could still strain national unity
How so? Well, in the case of some questions asked in the referendum, Alberta can’t unilaterally make decisions without constitutional change (as you know from Social Studies Chapter Three). For other questions, court challenges will almost certainly be forthcoming (some critics believe they infringe on rights protected under the Charter). And then there is the fact that Albertans themselves were starkly divided on some of the questions that sought to strengthen a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
With a sovereigntist government in Quebec, it’s possible Alberta will have a strong ally in pursuing the policy proposals Albertans backed in the referendum. There is alignment. There is also every chance that the two provinces could butt heads, especially if the different political realities in each province lead them to take contrary positions. That could be very problematic, and potentially juice support for sovereignty in one or both provinces.
Then there are the other provinces. Every region has its own unique values and each would have to sign off on constitutional change. Could national alignment be found on every issue? It’s unlikely – and that too could renew frustrations in Alberta or even in other regions.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized that while constitutional change is difficult, other political and policy options are available. That distinction matters: Alberta can seek administrative agreements, negotiations, litigation, or changes to federal and provincial laws without immediately reopening the Constitution. But also remember: Mark Carney is a prime minister, not a president. And while the prime minister has significant power in our system, he can’t make unilateral concessions to Alberta without support. Yes, the governing Liberals have a majority in the House and will likely back any move that keeps our country united. But there is always the chance that too much deference to Alberta could rub some people in BC, Ontario, and the Maritimes the wrong way, leading to some dissent in the Liberal government ranks. Again, this is something to watch.
A final thought
The vote produced a clear enough result on separation that it is unlikely to be seriously disputed internationally. But misinformation about the vote is already circulating, and that creates a different problem: even a decisive democratic result can be weakened when people distrust the count, reject verified information, or accept false claims about how the election was conducted.
When roughly one-quarter of a province wants to leave the country, the political challenge does not end with the vote. Alberta and Ottawa still have to find ways to keep that part of society engaged rather than allowing it to become more isolated and hostile to the rest of Canada.
That challenge is larger because Alberta wants to remain in Canada while becoming increasingly different from the rest of Confederation – just like Quebec. Both provinces have strong regional identities and legitimate policy concerns, but the country must still cooperate on trade, energy, immigration, climate, and environmental policy. The referendum therefore settled one question for now, but it did not remove the larger challenge of keeping Canada together during a trade war and an era of rapid political change.
View our video on these results.
Related Resources
Referenced Resources
- Alberta Referendum: Live Results
- Alberta votes by large majority to remain part of Canada in boost for Carney
- Albertans vote yes to unity, no to separation referendum in historic vote
- Alberta referendum results for all 10 questions
- Albertans mixed on other referendum questions after rejecting separation
- Alberta Separatists Target Smith’s UCP Leadership After Referendum
- The Alberta question: How separatists took hold of the province’s governing party
- The separatists who helped bring Danielle Smith to power are trying to unseat her
- ‘I think we’ve won’: Separatist leader says Alberta referendum has promoted ‘serious, adult discussion’
- Danielle Smith has said no to a second referendum. But that decision might not be hers to make
- Explainer: What does Alberta’s referendum on separation from Canada mean?
- Alberta Referendum Results: Alberta Votes to Stay in Canada, and Yes, You Can Still Visit
- Separation, immigration, the Constitution: A look at Alberta’s referendum questions